Armenian expert: Russia’s influence in South Caucasus gradually weakening

Political analyst Benyamin Poghosyan, a research fellow at APRI Armenia, outlined two potential scenarios that could emerge from ongoing negotiations between Moscow and Washington at an international roundtable held in Yerevan on Saturday.

"The first and more likely scenario is that the war in Ukraine continues for up to another year," Poghosyan said. He explained that if this plays out, the current status quo in the South Caucasus, largely unchanged since the summer of 2022, is likely to persist. However, he stated Russia's influence in the region is gradually weakening.

"This doesn’t mean that Russia has completely withdrawn from the South Caucasus. It still retains a presence, including the 102nd Military Base in Armenia and border troops. But I believe the most devastating blow to Russia came with the ethnic cleansing of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. The absence of Armenians there today, combined with the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers, marked a major setback for Moscow," Poghosyan said.

He also highlighted the shrinking Russian military presence in Armenia, pointing out that Russian border guards have now withdrawn from both the Armenia-Azerbaijan border and the checkpoint on the Armenian-Iranian border.

"While Russia remains the dominant external player in the South Caucasus for now, the most likely contender to replace it amid Moscow’s declining influence is Turkey," Poghosyan argued. "If the war in Ukraine continues for another year, we will witness a slow but steady weakening of Russia’s position in the region. Ultimately, this could make Moscow the number two external player in the South Caucasus."

Poghosyan also discussed an alternative scenario in which the war ends before spring 2026. In that case, he believes Russia may have a better chance to halt or even reverse the gradual erosion of its regional influence.